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April 24, 2017

BBVA presented its growth forecasts of Spanish economy

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The financial corporation of BBVA and its research department has updated its forecasts of economic growth to 3 %, which could be registered by Spain this year. This is an unprecedented figure, which has not been registered till now in the market, despite the fact that it agrees with the latest estimates made by Spain's Economy Minister, Luis de Guindos.

In particular, BBVA's research department says that in 2017 Spain's GDP will grow by 3% (three tenths more than was previously forecasted), which means that Spain can register the third consecutive year with growth rates near to 3 %. In 2015 and 2016, the national economy grew by 3.2%. Next year the growth is expected to be by 2.7%, which means that in this case BBVA maintains its previous forecast.

So, what are the reasons that allow the experts to expect a higher economic growth than the forecast of Spain's executive power? According to experts from the financial company, the key will be a significant creation of jobs, a good behavior of the external sector, an increased investment in equipment and an acceleration of activity in the Spanish real estate sector.

Thus, according to the published report, it is expected that in Spain will be created a million jobs between 2017-2018 (an average of 500,000 jobs per year, according to government forecasts). In March of this year have already found a new job about 162,000 people, as confirmed by the Ministry of Employment of Spain. Therefore, according to BBVA, the unemployment rate will fall to 15.5% by the end of next year.

Moreover, it is expected to have good indicators of the country's export activities, both in terms of sales volume and new destinations. According to the Ministry of Economy of Spain, the prospects of exporting companies are now at their highest level since 2007.

With respect to investment in equipment and machinery, in this case, some slowdown is expected during the recovery of the sector. However, investments made may grow by around 3.6% this year and by 4.4% in 2018. Another power of the local economy will be investments in the residential real estate sector in Spain, which will grow during the same biennium.

"The end of 2016, better than expected, and the positive existing outlooks, according to BBVA experts, justify a predicted increase in real estate investment in Spain this year. In particular, this sector is expected to grow by 4.3% in 2017 (by 1.1 percentage points more than three months ago) and by 5.8% in 2018", according to the corporation's report.

Among the reasons that allow the experts to present such optimistic forecasts could be named both internal and external factors. So a special mention should be made of Spain's export activities. "The restoration of international trade flows and the acceleration of world activity are confirmed. Furthermore, no changes are expected in any of the factors that have increased Spain's attractiveness in the international market as a tourist destination, especially those related to the lack of security in some of the competing countries. On the other hand, although the oil prices seem to be set at current level, which represents an increase of 27% over the average of last year, they are still 40% lower than in 2014. This is particularly important for the Spanish economy, which imports oil and gas. All these factors will contribute to the growth of Spain's export activities and will reduce the uncertainty about the future for families and companies," added BBVA experts of the research department.

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