The financial corporation BBVA estimates that GDP growth in Spain will be by 2.7% in 2016 and the unemployment rate will decrease to 22.2% this year and to 20.5% next year.
The Research Department of BBVA (BBVA Research) raised its growth forecast for this year by two tenths to 3.2% and to 2.7% next year, according to recent data published in the report "Situation Spain".
Despite this upward revision, BBVA expects a slowdown in the development of Spanish economy in the second half of 2015 as GDP growth will be at only 0.7% between July and September as expected, after a 0.9% and 1% that have been recorded in the first two quarters of this year.
These data for the experts of the company BBVA say the Spanish economy reached its maximum growth rate in the second quarter of this year, although the numbers are still better than they were planned three months ago that explains the revision of the growth forecasts upwards for 2015.
Behind these figures of moderate growth of Spanish GDP is situated the employment rate in Spain, since the contribution to employment growth of public services in the coming months will be significantly lower. The investment in machinery and equipment also has registered lower growth rates than expected six months ago, and the recovery of housing offer will be somewhat slower than expected in the beginning.
In addition, the research department of BBVA expects the unemployment rate in Spain will be reduced to 22.2% this year and to 20.5% in 2016 and believes that the state budget deficit will be at the end of this year equal to 4.5%, about three tenths higher than the figure agreed with Brussels, and in 2016 will remain at 3%, about two tenths higher than the estimates of the Spanish government.
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