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March 5, 2015

Funcas raises GDP growth in Spain 3% this year

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Funcas raises GDP growth in Spain 3% this year

The Spanish economy’s acceleration of its growth in the second half of 2014 and in the first quarter this year becomes increasingly evident because of the official statistics that appear in the press. At the same time, the vast majority of analysts and the Spanish government itself were not prepared for such high positive results and have been forced to revise economic forecasts made earlier to increase. This week so did the Fund Savings Banks (Funcas) that on 14 January this year predicted that the Spanish economy will grow 2.4% in 2015. Nearly two months after the Fund Savings Banks (Funcas) revised its forecasts and increased by six percentage points to 3%, which, according to experts of the organization, is based on a significant increase in domestic consumption and residential construction.

At the same time as the Fund Savings Banks (Funcas) this year more jobs than expected in Spain will be created. Specifically, Funcas predicts that over 890,000 jobs will be created during this and next year. The unemployment rate compared to 23.7% in 2014 will drop to 22.3% in 2015 and 20.4% in 2016.

In his official report Fund Savings Banks (Funcas) explains that the acceleration of economic activity in Spain will be possible as a result of falling oil prices (Brent barrel has depreciated by 55% since mid-2014) the lower interest rates and the effects of tax privileges (Tax Ministry will reduce it in 9,000 million over two years) and the recovery of public investment in the pre-election period.

After revision of Funcas will follow the forecast of the expert group, consisting of 18 research works, which, in turn, predicted the GDP growth at 2.1% in Spain in mid-January. But even this does not seem appropriate, considering that even the Spanish government has revised its forecast upward. The Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, in his speech during the open debate on the state of the nation announced that the new GDP growth would increase from 2% to 2.4%. But just two days later, he added that the country's economic growth is likely to exceed 2.4% this year. So, this forecast will be sent to Brussels in April 2015 in the official government report.

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