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April 12, 2015

S & P continues to give a positive assessment of Spain

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The risk assessment agency S & P appreciates the recovery of the Spanish economy and its high level of competitiveness, based on the decline in oil prices, although the most probable futures and political changes in the country. In its latest report S & P raised its growth forecast for the Spanish economy and believes that GDP growth will be 2.2% this year.

The Agency Risk Assessment S & P keeps evaluating the Spanish sovereign debt as approved (BBB) ​​with stable forecast despite the uncertainty generated by the upcoming regional elections and a possible change in the macroeconomic and fiscal policy perspective. However, the latest report released by S & P raises growth forecast for the Spanish economy and believes that GDP growth will be 2.2% this year and 2.4% next year. The rating agency also believes there is "considerable" uncertainty regarding to the upcoming regional elections and the future government of the country will need to maintain "the experience of made economic reforms". However, the agency positively estimates the recovery of the Spanish economy and its high level of competitiveness.

The rating agency also adds that the evaluation of the sovereign debt of Spain will improve if the deficit will be reduced "even more" and the public debt will stabilize and will improve access to financing of the private sector. The agency report also states that the Spanish debt shall be of 93% of GDP in 2017 and believes that "given the timing of elections and the possibility of a more gradual approach in the implementation of fiscal consolidation," the government may differ from the compliance with the public deficit target for this and next year.

Regarding to the labor market, S & P has warned that labor costs in Spain are still higher than in the OECD in average. However, the experts positively assessed the tax reform approved by the Government, which can help create jobs. Also, do not expect the government will have additional financial costs associated with the recapitalization of commercial banks, because since the fourth quarter of 2013, the Spanish financial system recorded a net profit. This improvement in the development of the Spanish economy became evident after the recent macroeconomic indicators have improved, and Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy announced that the growth of the Spanish economy this year will exceed 2.4%. In addition, the registered unemployment rate in March fell by 60,214 people, which was the best March of the last thirteen years. The S & P report is concordant with recent studies published by the risk-rating agency Fitch last month, which said the situation in the labor market in Spain "is improving."



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